Protest at the Lahore High Court

There is something truly iconic about this photograph, taken at the protest yesterday at the Lahore High Court:


The poster they are all photographing shows Musharaf without his uniform(!!!) Read about the protest here. The photographer has uploaded a host of photos of the protest here.

Edit: And here is a comprehensive first person account of the crackdown on the protest at the Lahore High Court.

Stability, Stability, Where Fore Art Thou Stability?

Ahmed Rashid in the Washington Post on how the coup actually makes Pakistan less stable, not more.

Part of the reason Musharaf took his drastic step was to attempt to boost morale and confidence within the army. The interests of the army are always paramount in the minds of the officer corps and the fact that the army has been hit hard in recent months has become more and more apparent. The need to appear decisive and in-charge and put the harping civilians back in line (Pakistani officers are traditionally full of contempt for civilians and believe they have no business in trying to run the affairs of the state) needs to be taken into account as a major motivation for Musharaf's move. In fact, Musharaf alluded to this in his address to the nation. Here is a rough translation. I found this part particularly enlightening as to his state of mind and the pressure he was under:

Under great duress, based on all these reasons, the whole nation is depressed and uncertain. I am getting phone calls from everywhere ... my own acquaintances, private, from outside the country, from inside the country, asking, "What is going on?" I am being taunted, "What are you doing?" They are taunting me that I was the decision maker, "What happened to you now? Why can't you decide now?" I have listened to these taunts in silence, and watched in disbelief what has been happening to Pakistan, in Pakistan. I had hoped that the judiciary and the government establishment will deal with these challenges ... and in that hope I sat silently and watched ... for improvements. But in my opinion this didn't happen. And the situation was getting worse by the day. And Pakistan was going rapidly into a negative direction.

This section eloquently summarizes the feelings of helplessness in the army as they witness their own ineffectiveness in the fighting against the militants, in their loss of control over the Pakistani street, in the increasing ascendancy of raucous politicians and truculent judges. And like all those who have exercised authority through intimidation, in a questioning of their authority, they perceive "taunts" and personal humiliation. It was not so much the nation that was "under duress", "depressed" and "uncertain", as Mr. Musharaf himself.

Saving Democracy

Saving Democracy... Musharaf Style:


(From the BBC)

The War on Terror in Afghanistan

Just as a little aside. The A-10's GAU 8/A 'Avenger' gatling gun has to be the most fearsome weapon on the modern battlefield. Listen to the sound of it around 4 minutes into this video clip of Afghan and Dutch soldiers battling the Taliban in Uruzgan. It sounds like some kind of mythical beast. Frightening.

Then again I can't imagine these kinds of engagements are going to like, you know, win the war on terror.

Pakistan Social Indicators

Dawn reports: “Compared with Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka, Pakistan’s school enrolment is lower, adult illiteracy is higher, and infant and child mortality rates are higher,” says an analytical study of the Asian Development Bank.

Rumours

The Rumour in the Karachi Stock Exchange is that a curfew has been imposed in Islamabad and that Musharaf has been forced out by the army High Command.

Don't know if its just a wild rumour (though it has led to a stock market crash in the last few minutes) or if there is any truth behind it. Guess we will soon find out.

Edit: Well the army has issued a statement saying that the rumours of a counter-coup were just that - a rumour and that no such thing has happened. The need for a statement was necessary because the stock market had gone into free fall.

Still, I get the feeling that Mushie's days are numbered. The army High Command forced Ayub Khan out in 69 and got rid of Yahya Khan after the 1971 war. Zia ul Haq's assassination, whatever its motive force was, certainly needed the active complicity of highly placed men in the armed forces. (As one retired general said on a TV discussion recently, the High Command breathed a sigh of relief at Zia's death). Unless Musharaf can turn things around fairly quickly in Pakistan, (and I don't see how he can), the army may well show him the door.

A Conversion and a Confirmation

It would seem as if Mr Ali Eteraz, who wrote a fawning apology for Musharaf in his article on the Guardian website, which I criticized here, has already repented.

Meanwhile it seems as if as far back as in 2002, it had become apparent that the much-touted Madressa reform policy of the Musharaf government was heading for failure. This report by the International Crisis Group spells out its shortcomings. It pretty much confirms my own assessment of the Madressah reforms.