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A message for Mush:


And in other news, about 700 lawyers rallied in New York outside the Supreme Court in Manhattan in support of the lawyers protesting in Pakistan. Personally, I feel that this is a much more important and worthwhile gesture than any of the two-faced mumbo-jumbo issuing from U.S. government officials. With the Musharraf regime unmoved and the protesters in sorry shape, its good to know their heroic efforts are being recognized.

On a similar note, the Harvard Law School Association has decided the honour the ousted Chief Justice with the Harvard Law School Medal of Freedom.

Concerning news in Pakistan, 'V' on the Lahore Metroblog has a very emotional piece on the Islami Jamiat Talaba's betrayal of Imran Khan to the police at the Punjab University campus yesterday. Here is the Guardian's more detailed and less emotional report of the event.

The Emergency Times has an article on this odd dichotomy that many in Pakistan (particularly those from military backgrounds) draw between military dictators and politicians. The tired old story goes that politicians are and have always been corrupt, feeble and ineffective rulers while military men are devoted, upright and efficient. It won't surprise anyone that this idea is a hangover from colonial times when the Anglo-Indian military and bureaucracy (the line between the two was always rather blurred) derided the corrupt, effeminate native politicians as well as the ineffective democracy back in Britain that seemed hellbent on "losing India" by introducing parliamentary forms and handing power over to the unwashed native masses who were easily manipulated and were unfit to govern themselves. Sound familiar?

After last weeks mock split between BB and Musharraf, it seems as if attitudes have hardened over the weekend. Increasingly it seems as if there may be a split between the two and the deal may well be moribund. It seems as if BB may have overplayed her hand. But my guess is that both BB and Mush have not yet shut each other out completely. The definitive proof of a final break will only come in Musharraf invalidates the NRO, or has his puppet Supreme Court do it for him.

The army officially took over operations from the Frontier Constabulary yesterday and finally launched a major operation against militants in Swat. There are conflicting reports about the death toll. The Corps Commander in the region blamed the MMA provincial government for allowing the build up of militants in Swat, saying that they did not allow a military operation earlier and had preferred appeasing the militants.

Now this is a very interesting assertion. The first question that comes to mind, is that if the MMA provincial government was obstructing the re-assertion of government control, why was it not dismissed and a caretaker government, imposed in NWFP earlier, or, since the military regime is fond of Emergencies, why wasn't an Emergency imposed in NWFP? The answer to this, of course, is that Musharraf needed the mullahs to be re-elected as President in the Presidential elections in October. When the APDM parties attempted to resign en masse in order to force a dissolution of the NWFP assembly, thereby making the holding of Presidential elections impossible till national elections were held, the JUI(F) - the Islamic party with the largest number of seats both in NWFP and the senate, blocked the dissolution of the assembly by refusing to resign. In this way, as in 2004, the mullahs and the military united to have Musharraf re-elected.

So its convenient for the Corps Commander to blame the burgeoning of militancy on the MMA, but lets not forget who had a vested interest in keeping the MMA government in power. The mullahs may have been appeasing the militants, but it was Musharraf who was appeasing the mullahs.

More Victories in the War on Terror

60 FC men surrendered in Swat. More posts and camps were abandoned by soldiers and police, including contingents working at refugee and rehabilitation camps set up after the 2005 earthquake. This in turns caused the pull out of NGOs and Chinese engineers working on hydel projects.

It appears as if the soldiers who surrender are treated to cups of tea and receive a small cash stipend from the militants before being sent on their way home. Obviously, they have learned that this is a better incentive than beheading to get the stalwarts of the Pakistani forces to surrender. Keen on further enhancing their skills in the hospitality business, the militants took over a Hotel-Management Training Institute yesterday.

But its not all tea and biscuits under the militant regime. A punishment of 15 lashes has been introduced for anyone who misses prayer time.

In Miramshah, a pro-government tribal elder's house was blown up. Recall, these are the same tribal elders on whom the government is counting to make all these peace deals work.

The Deputy Attorney-General has resigned in protest at the government's bulldozing of the judiciary. We should salute his honesty and courage. Meanwhile the Awami National Party (ANP) has announced that it will not take part in elections under the PCO. The ANP is a left-leaning party with its support base in the NWFP and has traditionally been an ally of the PPP. Contrast the ANP's stand with that of the contemptible JUI(F) which announced it had no problem contesting elections under the PCO. The head of the ANP, Asfandyar Wali Khan is also, by the way, the only significant public figure that I know of who has condemned the suicide bombing that killed over 40 people in Afghanistan a couple of days ago, including several Members of Parliament.

Because most courts are not functioning, or only functioning in a very limited manner, the Army Act is apparently going to be amended so that military tribunals can try civilians.

The government has finally started cracking down on PPP party workers, mostly in the Punjab, with a view of strangling attendance to the rally BB is set to hold today in Rawalpindi. This contrasts with earlier instructions law-enforcement agencies had received to take a "soft" approach with PPP, JUI(F) and ANP party workers.

The owner of the 'Geo TV' network, which had become the most popular TV channels in Pakistan prior to the emergency was arrested, kidnapped and "convinced" that the network should comply with the new ordinance on the media. This following threats he had received from intelligence officials such as this one:

"Pakistan Army is the backbone of Pakistan, don't try to damage it, if u do, u and your family who have looted billions would be hunted down like rats," it read. "It will just take a few hundred people to smash ur studios, offices, vans."

No mention of the billions looted by army officials or the fact that the army, as an institution is a gigantic leech attached to the throat of the nation and has been sucking it dry while growing fat and bloated. And if I were in the army High Command, I would have the person who wrote this message shot on general principles because of his use of the letter "u".

Needless to say, the army is acting much like the Taliban which has also issued threats to the press for printing photographs in which women are visible.

Of course perhaps the biggest news in this parade of disgusting capitulation by the military government came yesterday in the news that Musharaf's newly appointed caretaker Chief Minister in NWFP announced that the government is willing to give in to the Swat militants demand to "provide relief" for the incarcerated leader of the Tehrik Nifaz Shariat-i-Muhammadi, Maulana Sufi Mohammad (also the father-in-law of militant leader Maulana Fazlulla).

To understand the enormity of this step, one needs to know a little about the TNSM. It is basically, the group that inspired the Taliban and the first militant Islamist group to start terroristic activities in Pakistan. Quoting from Hassan Abbas' book, 'Pakistan's Drift into Extremism', in 1994, "This movement spread in malakand area of NWFP of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan, with many of its members boasting about their participation in the jihad in Afghanistan. They occupied the local airport (Saidu Sharif), forced government offices to close down, and blocked traffic on all major roads in the area, demanding enforcement of the Islamic law in Malakand. The government used the Frontier Corps to arrest Sufi Mohammad and restore order, but also succumbed to the TNSM demand of introducing Islamic law in the area."

If the military, and the military government is, indeed, Pakistan's backbone, then the country is obviously a spineless creature. Its no wonder that the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan is claiming that "Talibanisation is the real agenda of this government".

Of course, as the General was good enough to remind us in his address a few days ago, one shouldn't focus solely on the bad news. The News has an article praising the courage of the seven Supreme Court Judges who stayed on at the Supreme Court even as it was being surrounded by troops, in order to pass a motion declaring the PCO illegal. It also reminds us that an independent judiciary is not in Bhutto's interest since the National Reconciliation Ordinance which dropped all the outstanding warrants and corruption cases against her has been challenged in court.

Dawn notes that for the first time in years, there is a non-partisan political movement forming on university campuses. Its particularly important that the campuses which cater to the children of the rich and powerful are politically active, because students from humbler backgrounds are much more likely to get beaten up or jailed. The Emergency Times, has become a hub about which much of these protests are organized.

Finally I leave you with this parody of a famous Pakistani nationalist song, sung at a recent protest (linked from the Emergency Times website):

The State of Emergency

Rumours about a possible state of emergency had been flying about for several days, so Musharaf's move to suspend the constitution and, in effect, impose martial law, is not unexpected. The PCO issued by Musharaf keeps the national and provincial assemblies intact and only dismisses the judiciary and imposes tight controls on the media. The reason for this being, of course, that much of the opposition have already resigned from the assemblies and it was in the courts that a battle was being waged against Musharaf's reign. (Here is the text of the declaration.)

Musharaf claims that he is saving Pakistan from suicide, blaming militant violence and the judiciary for paralyzing the government.

Benazir Bhutto, who less than two weeks after her return to Pakistan decided to fly back to Dubai for a vacation, had earlier said that she might delay her vacation because of fears of the imposition of martial law. Then she left anyway and only returned after the state of emergency had been declared, expressing her "surprise" at the step.

So what to make of all this? Here is an article that effectively supports Musharaf's move. To me, it reads like yet another disgusting apology for the dictatorship of Pakistan's colonial elite.

Mr Eterez refers to "young professionals" and businessmen - people from the same thin upper class layer as himself who have benefited from Musharaf's rule the most. He mentions economic growth but doesnt mention the growing disparity in wealth, or the strong inflationary rates that have turned the common man against the government (over 50% and sometimes close to 100% for basic household goods and foodstuff in the period Musharaf was in charge). Furthermore, much of this growth was driven not by Musharaf's policies but by the cash windfall the country received post 9/11 from remittances looking for sanctuary from tougher banking laws in the west and Middle Eastern investment from money from booming oil prices. At the same time privatization has followed at full steam, also providing a windfall for the country's rich, but doing little to provide any kind of relief to the common man. In fact, the reference in the Emergency Declaration to the judiciary blocking "economic development" is an obvious reference to the Supreme Court's ruling against the privatization of the Pakistan Steel Mills - a shocking scandal in which several senior governmnt officials participated to sell of the industry at a fraction of its worth (in return for alleged kickbacks).

Having met and spoken to various businesmen and CEOs of investment firms in Pakistan - the same people who are most enamoured of Musharaf and his economic policies - I have found that while they are for the most part secular in their personal outlook, their virulent nationalism often leaves them obsessed with theories of the coming "decline of the west", their anti-semitism, (one refered me to Henry Ford's "The International Jew" - an anti-semitic text given all the more legitimacy in their eyes for being linked to one of the scions of modern capitalism), and insistence on Pakistan's participation in a 'great game' to dominate the region by using Islamic militants as a tool of foreign policy. They may be believers in capitalism and secularism - but, like the old British colonial elite from whom they took charge of the country - they are no believers in democracy and are full of nothing but contempt for their fellow citizens.

Its fine for Mr Eterez to sit cosily in his London home and extol the virtues of martial law, but about the only achievement of which Musharaf could legitimately boast - the blooming of a free media under his reign - has been undone by this latest move. The press has been stifled - and prison terms will now be imposed on anyone who criticizes the government. A great way to support the growth of "civil society". Conceivably, I could be sentenced to 3 years imprisonment and fined for writing this blog post criticizing the government's move.

This gagging of the press comes in the wake of reporting from Swat where military forces have been surrendering in droves to the militants and giving undertakings not to serve in the armed forces anymore. The militants have been gleefully arranging press conferences and inviting press reporters to photograph the weapons, arms and ammunition - ranging from armoured cars to rocket launchers - that have been falling in to their hands from these mass surrenders. Instead of taking a good hard look at their own tactics and strategies, the army has decided it needs to gag the press in order to "preserve morale".

As President and Chief of the Army, Musharaf has presided over the largest loss of sovereign Pakistani territory since the 1971 war - to the very Islamic militants he nurtured to use as a foreign policy instrument in Afghanistan and Kashmir. This on top of his failed war in Kargil in 1998. At least Yahya Khan had the decency to resign after the 1971 war. Musharaf however refuses to do so despite his complete loss of credibility. If Pakistan is on the path to suicide, as Musharaf claimed in his address yesterday - then he is one of those whose actions are pushing it to the brink.

Pakistani Counter-Insurgency

Today's schadenfreude award goes to this short report prepared by the neo-con think tank, the AEI, which examines the Pakistan counter-insurgency effort in the tribal belt and northern areas and, after criticizing the "elementary errors" made by the army, recommends that Pakistan should learn from India's successful counter-insurgency effort in Kashmir!

Its an interesting report, worth reading, but interestingly enough, the folks at the Indian policy blog, The Acorn are not entirely convinced. They point out that some of the steps advocated in the report actually backfired for the Indian army. Two points made are that cordon-and-search operations (CASO) that the AEI report recommends was found by the Indian army to alienate local inhabitants and the recruitment of former insurgents (ikhwanis) only met with mixed success.

An interesting point made though, and I think a valid one, was that the Indians soon learned that the use of artillery and airstrikes always did more harm than good and instead relied on flushing areas with huge numbers of ground troops to provide security for the local population and hinder the free movement of the insurgents. Fully one fourth of India's army was stationed in Kashmir. Soldiers were deployed on foot along entire roads and highways to check for IEDs before they were used by military convoys.

This is particularly important because firstly, as we can see in Swat, the Pakistani forces have lost their own freedom of movement and are confined in their bases and checkpoints. The militants can amass to attack and overrun specific targets and then disperse again at will, before the Pakistani army can bring significant force to bear on them. Proportionately, the Pakistani army has far fewer men to cover the areas where insurgents operate, and IEDs and suicide bombings are a major source of casualties. Furthermore, convoys move along unsecured routes and are easily attacked and overwhelmed. This was one of the "elementary mistakes" referred to in the AEI report. Several convoys have been attacked and overrun, including one in which over 200 soldiers were captured by the militants without a shot being fired.

In an interesting interview with one of the officers of a captured convoy, it was revealed that the soldiers had been told that a peace agreement had been reached with the militants and that they could travel through the area without hindrance as long as they remained in their vehicles. When the convoy was surrounded by locals asking what the soldiers were doing there, they kept radioing HQ for instructions. The local army commander kept radioing High Command for instructions. No one had any clear idea about what to do. Finally, after a long delay, the locals lost their patience and took the soldiers into captivity.

What is clear was the ineptitude and lack of clarity in the Pakistani army leadership's handling of the crisis. There is no clear idea of what the military objectives are, let alone how to go about securing them.