Gibran Peshimam has a good peice in the News on the still-unresolved Baluchistan issue and how it is becoming increasingly vital, and increasingly difficult, to attempt to bring it to some kind of just resolution.
Last year there was some mumbles from the PPP government about righting the wrongs done to the Baluchi people, apologies and trying to find the whereabouts of the over 1,100 disappeared in the Province, but when it came to taking concrete measures, little seemed to be happen. The disappearances continued as did the simmering insurgency which targetted police, army, infrastructure and gas and mining operations, as well as non-Balochis civilians. As Asma Jehangir of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan points out on this segment from a talk show on Geo, the government's control over its Balochistan policy seems non-existant.
Certainly at a time where the democratically elected government was being smacked down by the army over issues such as control over the intelligence agency, the ISI, drone strikes on the ISI-friendly Taliban groups such as the Haqqanis in North Waziristan and so on, it was not keen on trying to wrangle control of the country's Balochistan policy from them.
But what has been the result of this? The insurgency has only grown worse. As Murtaza Razvi has pointed out in this article, Why keep on bleeding Balochistan? With the rolling up of the local government system and the economic troubles of the Balochistan government, it seemed as if whatever few crumbs were being allocated to try and redress the province's greviances were also being taken away. Continued military repression, including the closure of Baloch newspapers, a move unmentioned by the TV news media that at the time were trumpeting the violation of press freedom when journos were beaten up at a lawyer's rally, added salt to the wounds. It should be noted that the BLA (Baloch Liberation Army) has also murdered journalists who have written articles they did not like.
Reccently Zardari and co have once again started speaking of Balochistan, announcing that there will be a massive socio-economic uplift package for the province. This was part of a wider effort to once again engage with the Balochistan issue, but it has been met with sckeptisim on the part of Balochi nationalist leaders.
The military's fears have been stoked by the contacts between various Balochi nationalist leaders and India, including alleged material support for the militants. Various military apologists like to point out this website for something claiming to be the Government of Balochistan in Exile which announces itself to be based in Israel - looks like 1 guy whose funding by whoever was pulled before the year was out! I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually some sort of idiotic Pak military "psy-op". Because who thinks there is actually a World Baloch Jewish Alliance Building in Jerusalem, ISRAEL? (And why the capitals?) Alternately it could be one idiot trying to take the Chelabi route to influence in the US.
Anyway, despite the military's fears, the need to do something concrete rather than cosmetic is dire. While relatively moderate politicians may be participating in the democratic process and willing to work with the Pakistani govt., we should also heed their warnings that the more this insurgency drags on the more radicalized the next generation of Balochis are going to get. Now is the time to act.
Showing posts with label baluchistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label baluchistan. Show all posts
Sunday, 25 October 2009
Tuesday, 10 July 2007
Baluchistan Floods: A Man-Made Catastrophe?
Was the recent disastrous flooding in Baluchistan a man-made catastrophe? That's certainly what many of the locals who were effected think, and their views have been reflected by Baluchi nationalist leaders and politicians.
At the centre of the allegations is the much-maligned, newly built Mirani Dam in Turbat district. While proposals for a dam here had been floating around since the time of the British, it was only recently that the federal government initiated the project, and fast-tracked it so that it would be completed in short order.
The dam was intended to generate electricity and create a fresh-water reservoir that could be used to expand irrigation in the area, as well as provide a fresh water supply to the new port-city of Gawadar. In a previous post I've mentioned how Gawadar and its associated mega-projects are regarded with suspicion at best, and outright hatred as a form of colonisation at worst, by many Balochi nationalists. In fact the dam's construction site came under rocket and small arms fire by Balochi insurgents several times at the height of the Balochi insurgency.
As with all dams, this one entailed the dislocation of numerous villages out of their homes and ancestral lands to clear the catchment area of the dam. While the villagers were assured that they would be compensated and their new lands would receive the benefit of electricity and irrigation water from the dam, many regarded the dam as something designed specifically to steal water for the benefit of Gawadar. As with many other of the nation's mega-projects there was little attempt to consult or effectively communicate with those whose lives would be most effected by the dam's construction.
One particular point of controversy arose over what the expected water level of the dam's catchment area would be, and thus, who would have to move as a result. The optimum water level of the artificial lake created by the dam was given as 244 feet above sea level, with a maximum level of 264 feet. (The height of the dam itself was 274 feet.) Naspak, the eingineering consultants on the project, calculated that with an average annual rainfall of 4 inches in the region, the dam could take up to 200 years to fill up to the optimum level. (7 inches of rainfall fell on one day at the height of the rains in late June.)
To quote from a detailed article from the BBC:
But its not clear if the dam itself is entirely to blame. Musharraf was quick to point out that the dam absorbed 450,000 cusecs of water, which if unchecked, would have caused further carnage downstream in the districts of Gwadar, Jiwani and Dasht. A senator from the ruling PML-Q went further in claiming that the floods had vindicated mega-projects like dams and had proposed dams in Sindh and NWFP been built, the effects of the floods would have been less severe there.
The reality may lie somewhere in the middle of the two views. While the dam helped mitigate the effects of the floods in some areas, it made them significantly worse in others. A subsequent inquiry ordered by Musharraf also seems to have found fault with the dam spillways, which are meant to channel water overflow out of the catchment area and whose design may have to be altered. While Baluchi nationalists are pointing the finger of blame at the federal government and Nespak, the engineering consultants who were involved in the planning of the dam, it would appear that it was the provincial government that held up compensation to people above the 244 feet mark, thereby keeping people in harm's way. The Provincial Chief Minister meanwhile, pointed out that Nespak had estimated that it would take many years (as much as 200) to reach the high water mark and so they had no reason to suspect that the people who lived between the 244 and 264 feet marks were in any danger. Locals claim that their warnings about the levels of previous flooding were ignored by both government officials and the surveyors.
The blame game will doubtless continue for the foreseeable future. All in all the debacle highlights the continued neglect of one of the basic principles of any kind of development project - that of effective public consultation. Effected communities must be genuinely recognised as stakeholders in these projects and their participation and ideas and local knowledge solicited and integrated into the project. The Musharraf government is certainly not the only government culpable for ignoring this principle. There is a cultural attitude towards the poor that is widely shared throughout Pakistani society (and indeed much of the developing world) that is at work here; that Development is something done "to" people and communities, rather than "with" communities. Some lessons need to be learned if similar catastrophes are to be avoided in the future.
IZ
At the centre of the allegations is the much-maligned, newly built Mirani Dam in Turbat district. While proposals for a dam here had been floating around since the time of the British, it was only recently that the federal government initiated the project, and fast-tracked it so that it would be completed in short order.
The dam was intended to generate electricity and create a fresh-water reservoir that could be used to expand irrigation in the area, as well as provide a fresh water supply to the new port-city of Gawadar. In a previous post I've mentioned how Gawadar and its associated mega-projects are regarded with suspicion at best, and outright hatred as a form of colonisation at worst, by many Balochi nationalists. In fact the dam's construction site came under rocket and small arms fire by Balochi insurgents several times at the height of the Balochi insurgency.
As with all dams, this one entailed the dislocation of numerous villages out of their homes and ancestral lands to clear the catchment area of the dam. While the villagers were assured that they would be compensated and their new lands would receive the benefit of electricity and irrigation water from the dam, many regarded the dam as something designed specifically to steal water for the benefit of Gawadar. As with many other of the nation's mega-projects there was little attempt to consult or effectively communicate with those whose lives would be most effected by the dam's construction.
One particular point of controversy arose over what the expected water level of the dam's catchment area would be, and thus, who would have to move as a result. The optimum water level of the artificial lake created by the dam was given as 244 feet above sea level, with a maximum level of 264 feet. (The height of the dam itself was 274 feet.) Naspak, the eingineering consultants on the project, calculated that with an average annual rainfall of 4 inches in the region, the dam could take up to 200 years to fill up to the optimum level. (7 inches of rainfall fell on one day at the height of the rains in late June.)
To quote from a detailed article from the BBC:
In the later half of 2006, Wapda agreed to offer full compensation for houses, orchards, land and irrigation works in areas up to 264 feet above sea level (asl) - or more than 18,000 acres, and transfer money to the provincial government.
But the provincial finance ministry decided to hold back the funds in the belief that areas above 244 feet asl - the level of the dam's spillway - qualified for only partial compensation.
The people refused to vacate their villages until they were paid in full. Last month was marked by marches and protests in Turbat city. The agitation ended when the provincial finance minister promised to make payments by 1 July.
But it was a day too far.
With the floods and rainfall that came with the cyclone of June 26th, the water in the catchment area rose to 271.4 feet. Dam engineers even called in explosive experts in case the flooding threatened the entire dam structure and a breach had to be made. A massive area of land in and around the catchment area was completely flooded resulting in huge loss of life and several hundreds of thousands rendered homeless in just that area of Baluchistan alone. Many have been quick to blame the dam for the carnage.
But its not clear if the dam itself is entirely to blame. Musharraf was quick to point out that the dam absorbed 450,000 cusecs of water, which if unchecked, would have caused further carnage downstream in the districts of Gwadar, Jiwani and Dasht. A senator from the ruling PML-Q went further in claiming that the floods had vindicated mega-projects like dams and had proposed dams in Sindh and NWFP been built, the effects of the floods would have been less severe there.
The reality may lie somewhere in the middle of the two views. While the dam helped mitigate the effects of the floods in some areas, it made them significantly worse in others. A subsequent inquiry ordered by Musharraf also seems to have found fault with the dam spillways, which are meant to channel water overflow out of the catchment area and whose design may have to be altered. While Baluchi nationalists are pointing the finger of blame at the federal government and Nespak, the engineering consultants who were involved in the planning of the dam, it would appear that it was the provincial government that held up compensation to people above the 244 feet mark, thereby keeping people in harm's way. The Provincial Chief Minister meanwhile, pointed out that Nespak had estimated that it would take many years (as much as 200) to reach the high water mark and so they had no reason to suspect that the people who lived between the 244 and 264 feet marks were in any danger. Locals claim that their warnings about the levels of previous flooding were ignored by both government officials and the surveyors.
The blame game will doubtless continue for the foreseeable future. All in all the debacle highlights the continued neglect of one of the basic principles of any kind of development project - that of effective public consultation. Effected communities must be genuinely recognised as stakeholders in these projects and their participation and ideas and local knowledge solicited and integrated into the project. The Musharraf government is certainly not the only government culpable for ignoring this principle. There is a cultural attitude towards the poor that is widely shared throughout Pakistani society (and indeed much of the developing world) that is at work here; that Development is something done "to" people and communities, rather than "with" communities. Some lessons need to be learned if similar catastrophes are to be avoided in the future.
IZ
Saturday, 23 June 2007
More on the Pakistani Budget
Sherry Rehman has an excellent critique of the government's proposed budget here in Dawn which is simply a must read. She adds a great deal of nuance and detail to the point I made in my blog here about how the budget is once again concerned with growth at the expense of welfare, thereby benefiting the rich at the expense of the poor. She also points out the following:
1. The Rs. 60 billion handout from the US Pentagon isn't in the budget. Where is it? Rahman reminds us that there is no parliamentary oversight over the military budget (the military does not report what its spending the public's money on).
2. Despite massive economic growth, the Pakistani government still borrows heavily. Massive borrowing from local banks drives interest rates up, inhibits local investment and drives inflation.
3. My point about the need to tax luxury consumer imports is made. (I had made the point about imported cars.) These account for $2.04 billion out of $27 billion spent on imports.
4. Where's the pork? Rahman points out the expenditure of the President House is earmarked as Rs. 316 million. NAB's budget has now been inflated to Rs. 897 million (Rs. 2.4 million a day!) By contrast, the Ministry of Law, Justice and Human Rights is a paltry Rs. 197 million! Does NAB have any kind of results to show for this kind of expenditure? What possible use will this money be put to? One answer might lie in the fact that NAB is now a civilian façade for a retirement welfare club for ex-ISI officials.
As it happens, in the same issue of the Dawn is a small op-ed on the Provincial Budget of Baluchistan. Widespread resentment about the exploitation of Baluchistan's rich mineral and fossil fuel wealth, while the provincial government remained starved of funds, helped fuel the civil war that has raged in the province over the last few years. One might have expected the government to try and address some of these concerns, even on a cosmetic level. Alas, this has not happened.
Firstly, the total budget outlay is Rs. 63 billion. This in a province where the "the federal government extracts no less than an estimated Rs. 78 billion annually from Baluchistan's oil fields alone." That does not, of course count the huge amounts earned from the extraction of sui gas, or the large amounts of coal, iron ore and copper deposits found there. Overall 39 different minerals are being mined in the province (source: Baluchistan Economic Report 2005). Yet the Public Sector Development Programme has budgeted only Rs. 13 billion for social development - of which Rs. 10 billion is unfunded, with the province hoping for handouts from foreign development donors and the Federal government. This amount is solely for the continuance of current projects. No new projects are envisaged.
All this in a province where 47% of the population is below the poverty line, there is no significant private investment in productive sectors of the economy - whether agricultural, mining, or industrial. Female literacy is half that of the national average and maternal mortality is almost twice the national average.
The Federal government argues that it is investing billions in Baluchistan - these billions are all going into the development of the new port and its environs in Gwadar, and the building of a highway infrastructure to link military and naval installations to the rest of the country. While there is some trickle down in terms of menial jobs, this is offset by the navy's encroachment onto coastal areas through which they are destroying the livelihood of Makrani fishing communities. Productive investment this is not.
These are important concerns and needed to be given due consideration by the people's representatives. Alas, the NA has adopted the budget with hardly any changes, or any debate, whatsoever.
IZ
1. The Rs. 60 billion handout from the US Pentagon isn't in the budget. Where is it? Rahman reminds us that there is no parliamentary oversight over the military budget (the military does not report what its spending the public's money on).
2. Despite massive economic growth, the Pakistani government still borrows heavily. Massive borrowing from local banks drives interest rates up, inhibits local investment and drives inflation.
3. My point about the need to tax luxury consumer imports is made. (I had made the point about imported cars.) These account for $2.04 billion out of $27 billion spent on imports.
4. Where's the pork? Rahman points out the expenditure of the President House is earmarked as Rs. 316 million. NAB's budget has now been inflated to Rs. 897 million (Rs. 2.4 million a day!) By contrast, the Ministry of Law, Justice and Human Rights is a paltry Rs. 197 million! Does NAB have any kind of results to show for this kind of expenditure? What possible use will this money be put to? One answer might lie in the fact that NAB is now a civilian façade for a retirement welfare club for ex-ISI officials.
As it happens, in the same issue of the Dawn is a small op-ed on the Provincial Budget of Baluchistan. Widespread resentment about the exploitation of Baluchistan's rich mineral and fossil fuel wealth, while the provincial government remained starved of funds, helped fuel the civil war that has raged in the province over the last few years. One might have expected the government to try and address some of these concerns, even on a cosmetic level. Alas, this has not happened.
Firstly, the total budget outlay is Rs. 63 billion. This in a province where the "the federal government extracts no less than an estimated Rs. 78 billion annually from Baluchistan's oil fields alone." That does not, of course count the huge amounts earned from the extraction of sui gas, or the large amounts of coal, iron ore and copper deposits found there. Overall 39 different minerals are being mined in the province (source: Baluchistan Economic Report 2005). Yet the Public Sector Development Programme has budgeted only Rs. 13 billion for social development - of which Rs. 10 billion is unfunded, with the province hoping for handouts from foreign development donors and the Federal government. This amount is solely for the continuance of current projects. No new projects are envisaged.
All this in a province where 47% of the population is below the poverty line, there is no significant private investment in productive sectors of the economy - whether agricultural, mining, or industrial. Female literacy is half that of the national average and maternal mortality is almost twice the national average.
The Federal government argues that it is investing billions in Baluchistan - these billions are all going into the development of the new port and its environs in Gwadar, and the building of a highway infrastructure to link military and naval installations to the rest of the country. While there is some trickle down in terms of menial jobs, this is offset by the navy's encroachment onto coastal areas through which they are destroying the livelihood of Makrani fishing communities. Productive investment this is not.
These are important concerns and needed to be given due consideration by the people's representatives. Alas, the NA has adopted the budget with hardly any changes, or any debate, whatsoever.
IZ
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